Analysis of the market prospects of the ethanol industry

At present, the production capacity of fuel ethanol enterprises in China is 2.6 million tons, and the production capacity of unfinished fuel ethanol enterprises is about 1 million tons. If the production capacity of some alcohol enterprises is released, it is difficult to meet the demand for ethanol gasoline consumption. By 2020, if ethanol gasoline is fully covered, fuel ethanol imports may be necessary.

 

According to the current domestic promotion of E10 ethanol gasoline, the fuel ethanol consumption prospects in the domestic market can be expected, the ethanol industry business report is expected that during the entire "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the demand for fuel ethanol is expected to climb to about 13.57 million tons, compared with the previous 2.6 million The consumption per ton will show nearly five times the growth.

 

In the next three years, China's car ownership will continue to show growth, gasoline consumption is expected to continue to increase, consumption will reach 124.9 million tons by 2020, according to the assumption of E10 ethanol gasoline full coverage, by 2020, fuel ethanol utilization The amount will reach 12.49 million tons.

 

The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration and other 15 ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Implementation Plan on Expanding the Production of Biofuel Ethanol and Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles”, which clarified the work of expanding the production of biofuel ethanol and promoting the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles. The important significance, guiding ideology, basic principles, main objectives and key tasks, the fuel ethanol industry has ushered in new development opportunities and broader development space.

 

China's fuel ethanol is a policy-driven industry. The changes in national energy and agricultural product policies have a great impact on the fuel ethanol industry. At present, China's fuel ethanol is a national mandatory plan product, and its production and sales are in accordance with national special industrial planning development requirements. The core of industrial policy can be summarized as “approved production, directional circulation, closed operation, and orderly development.